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街舞兔
比特币挖矿奖励四年一次减半，属于底层代码硬性设定；但“价格跟随减半周期持续翻倍”仅仅是市场幻想，世间没有任何资产可以永续上涨。
回顾两轮牛市可以清晰看见趋势变化：2021年比特币历史高点6.9万美金。2025年，伴随现货ETF顺利推出，市场预期达到顶峰，行情最高只走到12.6万美金就见顶回落，上涨动能显著衰减。盘面已经给出明确信号，本质是比特币挖矿机制与生俱来的结构性冲突，长期存在螺旋下行的风险。
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