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broshao
每小时-0.0007%的资金费率，比整数关口失守更让我留意。$ETH刚跌破2300美元，我的判断是：负费率还不够成为看反弹的理由，拿它当安全垫，容易把赔率算错。
负费率意味着空头向多头付费，但这只能说明永续合约的持仓定价有偏向，不能证明现货卖压结束。我的推测是，如果价格继续下探，那么收取费率带来的好处，很可能抵不过价格损失。“做多能收费”和“做多有正期望”，差得挺远。
我会把判断条件放在价格能否止跌：如果负费率持续、价格却不再走低，反弹情景才更值得重视；如果低点不断下移，费率再诱人也不划算。我先观察卖压有没有被接住，不急着给负费率贴利好标签。
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