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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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美联储10月按兵不动,BTC从79,000一带被拉回81,260美元,盘中最高摸到81,560。过去24小时爆仓5,753万美元,其中空头爆仓4,331万,占比75.3%。 空头在挨打,价格在回升。所有人都在说:利空出尽,稳了。 但衍生品市场讲的是另一个故事。 Deribit上,1周期偏度从一周前的约10%骤降到1%以下。短期恐慌确实缓解了——没人再为“明天就崩”付溢价。 可你把期限拉长看:1个月、3个月、6个月期的期权,投资者依然在净买看跌期权。30天到期、行权价65000美元的BTC看跌期权,是过去24小时交易最活跃的合约。 短期装没事,中长期在买保险。这不是矛盾,这是机构的标准姿势。 决议前最活跃的比特币期权,是12月25日到期的7.2万看跌期权。交易者不是在赌“美联储今晚加不加”,他们赌的是12月那张桌子上会发生什么。 而决议落地后,CME数据显示12月加息概率从79.7%升到了82.6%,不是降,是升。 现货在笑,期权在算账。 沃什拒给前瞻指引,这才是最要命的那一刀。 他不告诉你下一步怎么走,等于告诉你:从现在到12月,每一个PCE、每一个非农,都可能变成砸盘触发器。没有指引的市场,不是更安全,是更不可预测。 在这种环境里,现货“稳住”是给散户看的。65000的看跌期权,是给自己买的。 8.1万是情绪修复。65000的保险单,是聪明钱在为“跌了怎么办”付钱。 如果你只看价格觉得“稳了”,去看看那个最活跃的合约行权价是多少。市场在用真金白银告诉你:它不信“利空出尽”这四个字。 $BTC $ETH $ZEC
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
LTC at 57 USD, do you still believe in it? Everyone is calling LTC an "old coin," but 9 million addresses remain active on-chain, the 2027 halving countdown is still on, and today the Fed decision landed—Is this 57 USD the last trap or the final chance to get on board? First, look at the surface: it’s fallen to make you doubt your life, but it just won’t break down. Down 7% in the past week, down 19%-20% in the past month, sliding from the high of 70-72 at the end of September, following a standard descending channel. Today it’s hovering in the 56-58 range, barely up 1%-2% in 24 hours. BTC is oscillating around 80,000, funds are chasing hot spots, and LTC feels like a forgotten old guy. First thing: no one is talking about LTC anymore, and that’s exactly when it’s safest. Open any group chat, it’s all SOL and meme coins. LTC? Even the haters are too lazy to bash it. Canary’s LTC spot ETF is still seeing sporadic inflows, not large scale, with AUM in the tens of millions USD, but the door is open. Litecoin Foundation signed an MOU with Greywick to push cLTC onto the Canton Network, targeting institutional financial scenarios. The plan is mid-to-late stage, but the direction is real. Merged mining is tied with DOGE, miner income has a floor, and security hasn’t faltered. It’s not that the news got better, it’s that no one cares anymore. Second thing: LTC isn’t without a story, it’s just that its story is too "slow." Many say LTC has no DeFi, no RWA, no AI narrative, so it’s obsolete. Circulating supply is about 77.8 million, max supply 84 million, inflation rate is already very low. Halving in mid-2027, block rewards drop from 6.25 to 3.125 LTC. MWEB privacy layer vulnerabilities fixed, node upgrades underway. Faster confirmations, low fees, Scrypt algorithm—the payment attributes haven’t changed in ten years. This is called a "veteran stable asset." Third thing: today’s Fed decision is the real short-term referee. October 28 FOMC, market highly expects rates to hold at 3.75%-4.00%. The focus isn’t on a hike but on the dot plot and Powell’s December guidance. Dovish tone, mild wording → risk assets rebound, LTC follows, eyeing 58-60. Hawkish surprise → deeper pressure, if 55 breaks, test 52-54. Support: 56-57 (current zone) → 55-55.5 (recent swing low) → 52-54 Resistance: 58-60 (short-term moving averages + previous high concentration) → 62-65 Daily moving averages still pressing, RSI neutral to weak but no deep oversold, short-term signs of recovery, daily remains neutral to bearish consolidation. Long-short battle, judge for yourself On one side: 55-56 repeatedly holds, support effective Halving countdown (mid-2027), scarcity logic intact ETF door open, cLTC institutional scenarios advancing 9 million non-empty addresses + merged mining, network robust On the other side: Monthly down 20%, descending channel intact No DeFi/RWA/AI narrative, weak resilience ETF inflows small, institutional interest far less than BTC/ETH/SOL If Fed is hawkish, high-beta altcoins under pressure Trading strategy Aggressive short-term: Long: hold above 56-57, try light long on volume surge/bullish engulfing, stop loss below 55, target 58.5-60 with partial take profit. Short: try light short on rejection at 58.5-60, stop loss above 60.5-61, target 55-56. Leverage ≤5-8x, avoid heavy positions before decision. Conservative approach: Don’t chase shorts below 57, don’t chase highs above 57. Buy in batches at 55-56.5 (spot or light perpetual), reduce at 59-60. Daily volume breakout and hold above 60 with reclaim of previous highs → add longs targeting 62-65. Break below 55 with volume → wait or hedge, next target 52-54. LTC now is like Litecoin in 2020— Before the last halving, everyone said "old coin is done," but once halving expectations brewed, it went from 30 to 100+. $BTC $ETH $LTC

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