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N1短线
- 当前基准利率区间：3.75%～4.00%
- 维持不变概率：约 90.6%
- 意外加息 25 bp（目标区间打到 4.00%～4.25%.）
市场定价，今晚直接加息的概率很低，主流预期是按兵不动，重点看会后表态，鹰派讲话会把悬念留到 12 月议息会议（目前期货定价 12 月加息概率已经冲到接近 75～80%）
盘面预案：
如果讲话偏鹰，行情向下插针。先看80000支撑，重点防守79300。
• 插针下探，只要快速收回79300，不有效破新低，多单依旧可以进场
• 一旦实体跌破79300收不回来，多单就要谨慎，下方两个低吸位置：78600、78100
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