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过河小兵
外交口径能压油价一截，不等于霍尔木兹风险溢价已经卸货。
硬数据：布伦特周二大致在114.6–116.3美元/桶、WTI约100.7–102.2，早盘曾因美伊方案与德黑兰四方会谈预期下挫约1%，随后因胡塞续扰沙特而回抽。霍尔木兹流量仍大约只有常态六成；伊方「约7日重开海峡」方案仍卡在美方解封港口、制裁与战事条件上，尚未落地。供应数字在修，溢价没清零，所以油价「能回一点」却难回80。高油价继续压制风险偏好，对$BTC也是宏观头顶压力。
你更信「方案谈成把油价打回100以下」，还是「溢价会粘在110上方」？#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $CL $BZ $BTC
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