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枫太
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ 我为什么不敢把概率给得更高
股价三个月内从高点回落约28-30%(10月中旬5个交易日跌26%)，原因是市场开始担心2029年产能过剩和中国长鑫存储的技术进展，而不是这一季的业绩。这意味着两点：超预期的利好可能已被定价（内存价格数据太透明，TrendForce/SemiAnalysis人人可见）；而一旦miss,跌幅会很大。所以“财报超预期”和“股价上涨”在这里是两件事
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