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dananeen
$APR 解锁前这两天偏弱。过去 24 小时多单被清掉 39 万美元，远多于空单的 18 万，追涨的杠杆已经先付了代价。现价 0.03053 还挂着涨幅，但 24 小时内从 0.03675 一路扫到 0.02742，振幅 34.0%，更像有人借反弹在 10-23 解锁前出货。图上高点在抬高，上涨也放量，这只能说明前几天有资金接盘。均线空头排列反倒和供给压力对得上。悬崖解锁只剩两天，筹码压力集中在这个窗口，短期的上升结构扛不住。我们的回测里，大额解锁前一周约四分之三的事件跑输大盘，$APR 正好处在这一段。费率一直小幅为正，当背景看就行。我判断解锁前会继续跑输，价格回到 0.02742 附近。翻多条件：解锁前收盘重新站上 0.03675，说明抛压已经被提前消化。
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