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陈副业
美联储主席想给政策沟通做减法:缩减前瞻指引,甚至考虑取消季度点阵图。
表面是少说几句,实际是把判断利率的难度扔回给市场。以前盯着点阵图就能押降息,现在得自己盯通胀、就业和每一次数据发布。
尴尬的是时点。9月CPI同比升到3.7%,10月加息的押注一度冲到接近50%,随后回落到40%以下。
今天比特币跌破8.1万美元,以太坊同步走弱,市场已经用价格投票了。
少了点阵图未必就是利空,但在通胀高企时,市场少了一个提前判断政策的参照物,波动可能更大。
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