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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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卡塔尔首相:谈判已取得重大成果,相信能达成解决方案。 美国国务卿鲁比奥:伊朗提出的条件,“不可接受”。 同一天。同一个谈判。 一个人说快成了,一个人说差得远。 到底谁在撒谎? 都没撒谎。这才是最可怕的地方。 卡塔尔说的“进展”,是程序性进展——万斯过去两周几乎每天跟调停方通话,技术级会谈的安排在推进,沟通渠道建起来了。 鲁比奥说的“不可接受”,是实质性分歧——伊朗9月提出的“七天方案”,核心是解除港口封锁、解冻资产、恢复霍尔木兹通行。特朗普至今拒绝。 翻译成人话:桌子搭好了,人坐下了,但菜一道没上。 更分裂的是,谈判推进的同一天,军事机器一秒没停。 11月7日,美军中央司令部下令成立“铁门”特遣队,专门封堵伊朗陆路边境和里海的受制裁物资运输,约20人驻扎佛州坦帕,任务是“巩固对伊朗的海上封锁”。 11月8日,伊朗革命卫队宣布:三艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡爆炸起火,理由是“未经授权航线”。 一边在谈,一边在封。一边说进展,一边在爆炸。 这就是“以打促谈”的经典剧本。军事压力是谈判的筹码,不是谈判的反面。 但市场只读了前半句。 布伦特原油一周暴跌13.65%,从100美元上方砸到97.92美元,WTI跌到89.19美元,回吐了相当一部分地缘溢价。 市场在定价什么?“停火概率上升,供应要回来了。” 可“铁门”特遣队是在收紧封锁。油轮爆炸是在证明海峡通行远未正常。 油价在交易和平,军事机器在交易僵局。中间那条裂缝,就是接下来最容易崩的地方。 BTC现在卡在7.5万到7.8万美元的区间,很尴尬。 它眼下的身份不是“数字黄金”,是高beta风险资产。路径很清楚:地缘升温→油价反弹→通胀预期回来→降息空间被压住→最先被杀的就是高beta。 之前冲突升级的时候,BTC从8.48万直接被砸到8.1万,爆的全是多头。 所以现在的问题不是“谈没谈”,是“谈成的概率值多少”。 说直白一点: 如果未来几天技术级会谈如期落地——哪怕只是坐下来——油价的和平溢价还有回吐空间,BTC能喘一口气。 如果会谈推迟、或者鲁比奥那句话变成现实——伊朗不让步,美国不松封锁——当前油价里被挤掉的那十几美元地缘溢价,会以比回吐更快的速度装回去。油价反弹,通胀预期抬头,加息那把刀重新悬起来,BTC承受的是第二波,不是第一波。 卡塔尔和鲁比奥说的可能都是真话。 谈判在推进。但离“可接受的协议”,还差一个伊朗的实质性让步。 市场现在定价的是前者。它还没有为后者做好准备。 $BTC $CL $BZ #美伊外交斡旋持续,霍尔木兹通航分歧待解
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
UNI at $7, did you cut your losses? Daily active addresses hit a new high for 2026, new addresses surpassed 13,000 in a single day, the protocol fee switch has been activated to start burning UNI with real money — but the price dropped from 10.9 to 7, nearly a 40% decline. On-chain activity is celebrating wildly, while the price is playing dead. Is the market blind, or is this another "good news dump" trap? Let's look at the surface: everything is improving except the price. In the past month, UNI fell 4%, weekly down 2-3%, hovering around $7 in the last 24 hours. But on-chain: daily active addresses at 14,500, the highest in 2026; new addresses exceeded 13,000 in a single day, the largest growth since 2020; 30-day trading volume between $60-70 billion, maintaining its leading position. Data is rising, price is falling — this divergence is either a golden opportunity or a trap. First thing: UNI is no longer the "governance air coin" it used to be. After the "UNIfication" proposal passed in December 2025, the protocol fee switch has been turned on. A portion of Uniswap's transaction fees is now used to buy back and burn UNI. Previously, 100 million tokens were burned at once, and burning continues. Annualized protocol revenue is between $70 million and $100 million, not huge profits but the direction is right — UNI is transforming from "air" into a "cash-flow generating deflationary asset." Second thing: RWA and v4 Hooks, Uniswap is playing a big game. v4 Hooks continue to expand: Aggregator Hooks connect external liquidity, Permissioned Pools support real estate and RWA tokenization, dynamic fees. Unichain migrated to OP Enterprise, and after Robinhood Chain launched, its trading volume at times surpassed Ethereum mainnet. Tokenized stocks have accumulated over $20 billion in transactions, with Uniswap leading. Uniswap is evolving from a "place to swap tokens" into a "settlement layer where everything can be traded." Stocks, real estate, real-world assets — all can run on Uniswap. Third thing: SEC case closed, biggest risk removed. The regulatory uncertainty that weighed on UNI is resolved; the SEC case is closed with no further action. What does this mean? The biggest barrier for institutional entry is gone. Combined with daily active addresses and new addresses hitting all-time highs, the rare divergence between on-chain activity and price appears — historically, such divergence either ends with a price catch-up or an on-chain crash. Which do you bet on? Bull vs. bear showdown, you decide: On one side: Protocol fee switch activated, UNI burning real money Daily active and new addresses hit 2026 highs, on-chain activity off the charts v4 Hooks + RWA + Unichain, ecosystem expanding comprehensively SEC case closed, regulatory risk removed Rebounding from the 2.3 low, consolidating at a high level, weekly chart still bullish On the other side: Whales just sold 1 million UNI (~$7.3 million) Open interest contracts falling from September highs, funds withdrawing Macro tightening, Fed rates at 3.75-4% pressuring risk assets BTC dominance high, altcoin season not here yet Resistance at 7.2-7.3 failed multiple times Key levels: Resistance above: 7.20-7.30 → 7.80-8.00 → 8.50 Support below: 6.80-6.90 → 6.60-6.70 → 6.40 Trading strategy: Short-term traders: Light long positions at 7.00-7.10, stop loss at 6.85 (exit if broken), target 7.25-7.40. If volume breaks below 6.85, light short positions can be tried, target 6.60, stop loss 7.05. Add more longs if it breaks and holds above 7.30, target 7.80. Swing traders: Strong support zone 6.60-6.90, buy in batches, stop loss below 6.40. Targets 7.80-8.50, longer term target previous highs. If macro deteriorates or BTC crashes, patiently wait for deeper pullbacks. Long-term believers: Buy and hold below 7. UNI dropped from 10.9 to 7, but fundamentals are stronger than in 2024 by more than one level — deflation mechanism, RWA, v4, SEC case closed, four major positives stacked. Target 15-20 by 2027, betting on DeFi leadership + deflationary flywheel + institutional adoption. But remember — position size should not exceed 30% of total funds, nothing is certain in this market. UNI now is like UNI in 2020 — 99% thought "governance tokens have no value," yet it went from $1 to $40. $BTC $ETH $UNI

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