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Yuvi.
$SPY
强非农对大盘,是盈利利好还是估值压力?
美国10月非农增加16.5万人,明显高于过去12个月月均4.8万人的增量。就业有韧性,企业需求未必迅速失速,但资金成本也未必很快下降。
大盘取决于盈利增长能否抵消贴现率压力。行业分化时,指数企稳也可能掩盖多数公司的经营疲弱。
我关注盈利预期修订与市场宽度。若更多行业上调盈利、上涨家数扩散,修复更健康;若少数权重拉升而收益率继续抬高,指数表现不足以证明风险已经解除。
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