Not just "metaphysics": Looking at the midterm election $BTC cycle bottom from a technical structure perspective
Many posts treat "bottoming after the midterm election" as a rule, but I think it's more worthwhile to analyze the underlying market structure and liquidity logic. Putting 2014 / 2018 / 2022 together, you can actually see a clear chain:
Election uncertainty → Risk premium rises → Leverage liquidation/liquidity exhaustion → Rapid bottom search → Macro liquidity shift → New round of expansion.
From a technical perspective, these types of bottoms usually share common characteristics:
1. Weekly RSI extremely oversold with divergence
It's not just about falling a lot, but the decline slows down and momentum no longer hits new lows.
2. Volume structure: high volume sell-off → low volume sideways → high volume reversal
After panic selling releases, if selling pressure quickly dries up, the bottom is often near.
3. Key moving averages/on-chain cost zone support
The $3,200 in 2018 and $15,500 in 2022 are not random numbers; they correspond to miner costs, long-term holder costs, and liquidity concentration zones.
4. Extreme market sentiment
Around the midterm elections, macro narratives combined with regulatory/fiscal expectations tend to create a "final drop."
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