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taishiro
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Bitcoin has a history of reacting badly around US midterm elections, but the bigger factor is how much political uncertainty spills into liquidity and risk appetite.
The historical drawdowns are worth noting, especially if both chambers change hands. However, three cycles aren't enough to establish a reliable pattern.
For $BTC, I’d be more concerned about how the market prices in the uncertainty, particularly ETF flows, liquidity and positioning. #USMidtermsPolicyOutlook
天才交易员-小黄豆
Damn! BTC has plummeted in the past three midterm elections!
Here is Bitcoin's performance after the last 3 midterm elections:
2014: Lost control of both chambers, bottomed around $171 within 71 days, a drop of -48%
2018: Lost control of the House, bottomed around $3200 within 39 days, a drop of -50%
2022: Lost control of the House, bottomed around $15500 within 13 days, a drop of -16%
Prediction market data shows the probability of Democrats taking the House surged from 92% to 95%, and the probability of Democrats taking the Senate is 72% #USMidtermElectionsAreComing, which outcomes are worth watching?
Looks like losing the House is a done deal 🤔️, just worried about losing both chambers!
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