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wesley教授
Influential Creator
满屏都在教你拿中东头条做避险作业，我给你看条没人盯的数据：日本东京电价刚创 2022 年 9 月以来新高，LNG 现货价涨到每百万英热 34 美元，是战前的三倍多。
这才是中东这盘棋真正的传导路径。油和气价顶在高位，先推通胀，再顶住各国收益率下不来，最后风险资产一起挨揍。三菱日联今天说得很直白：美国收益率上升叠加油价高企，新兴市场的货币和资产会持续承压。
所以别再把打仗当成利多、无脑买避险。真正的定价是——这是一场被当成加息来交易的冲突。黄金这两天跟着一块跌，就是最好的提醒：避险叙事在这盘里是失效的。
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