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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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其实造成谷歌盘后估值大幅调整除了财报与宏观本身之外,凌晨沃什的讲话也是为这次下跌埋下了伏笔 沃什凌晨的讲话中明确了对于AI资本开支的担忧,他的言论抛出两个关键问题: AI资本开始是否过度? 融资成本是否开始约束投资? 沃什并不认可目前的AI投资热潮可以免疫高利率,他的观点基本印证了我此前的那句话——宏观决定了你的钱贵不贵,财报决定投资者是否为估值买单,当利率越高,投资者为估值买单的,对财报的容忍性越低 其实透过沃什的观点可以看出他担心的问题是AI资本开支规模越来越大,导致资本需求也相应走强,宏观侧利率高,钱更贵,市场对企业的要求就会越来越严格,即投资证明ROIC 前脚沃什刚提出担忧,后脚谷歌财报就恰好踩中了问题所在,所以也难怪谷歌盘后跌幅如此之大,相比亚马逊股价走势,真的是时也命也!#微软Q1营收增长,Azure增速至48%超预期
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Looking back at Google's earnings report, although it wasn't outstanding, why did the stock price "crash"?
Reviewing Google's earnings report, although not excellent, why did the stock price "crash"? In this Monday's macro minutes, I clearly outlined four key factors to watch for the three major cloud providers: revenue + AI capital expenditure + free cash flow + future guidance. For Google itself, there are five key factors to watch: revenue + AI capital expenditure + free cash flow + future guidance + Google Cloud. So what answers did Google's earnings report provide? Revenue: Slightly below expectations, not bad, but the result is problematic; absolute growth is strong, but market expectations are stronger, slightly below expectations, mainly due to advertising revenue being slightly below expectations. AI capital expenditure: The company continues to maintain high capital expenditure, investing 200 billion yuan for the full year. This clarifies the demand validation logic for the entire AI infrastructure chain in data centers upstream, including Nvidia, Broadcom, HBM, optical modules, servers, and power. Free cash flow: -9.1 billion, negative free cash flow in Q2 this year, capital expenditure is too large, revenue cannot keep up. #Google Q3 revenue growth, net profit decline, earnings per share below expectations. Google Cloud: Still the strongest data in the earnings report, 30.71 billion growth with a synchronized increase of 103%, more than 55% of which will be recognized as revenue in the next 24 months. This data proves that Google's AI infrastructure has begun to generate large-scale revenue. Future guidance: Capital expenditure will significantly increase in 2027, TPU systems will see significant volume growth in 2027, but due to tight AI computing power supply, Google has started using third-party computing

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