DL_W59
DL_W59
美股 加密 AI 18年交易韭菜 均不是投资建议
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U.S. stocks mostly rebounded in pre-market
$MU
$SNDK
Actually, "The Fed will raise rates at least two more times" is already priced in for December, and the one more hike next year is still negotiable. What is being negotiated? It's the oil price, but oil prices have dropped now. So the risk market sentiment is clear again.
Even if the two more hikes happen as scheduled, one in December, doesn't that also mean the hikes will stop after one more next year?
Moreover, the Democrats will take over in January next year, and they have clearly stated they want to stop U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions. At that time, oil prices will fall, inflation pressure will be gone. How can they still raise rates?
The market is coming to realize that it might still be optimistic. 😂
But currently, oil prices have also rebounded, #BZ has risen above 91, #WTI has risen above 85, and the price spread is again more than $5, close to $6.
Actually, there is no expanded action, it's just that the Strait of Hormuz is still unsafe, causing some market concerns.
For oil prices to drop significantly, WTI must decisively break below 85, 80, or even 75, which requires real progress toward peace talks and both sides signing an agreement.
But there is still no such expectation now. If the Strait of Hormuz is attacked again, or Trump threatens action, naturally the market will worry again, causing oil prices to rise.
The risk market is still under pressure. So we can't be too optimistic.
After all, Trump is still president, and the congressional handover still has time.
Who knows if Trump will stir things up again?
As mentioned during the day, as long as tonight's data isn't too outrageous, combined with oil prices falling below the 90s, it will still boost risk markets. The US stock market dipped and then rebounded. #Bitcoin also pulled back and recovered close to 75
The market has also reacted; this is old inflation data, but the immediate feeling is that oil prices have indeed dropped. And wasn't the December rate hike already priced in? So it's reflected in the prices.
Next, let's just hope Trump doesn't stir things up. Just don't let oil prices rise sharply again. Please.
Finally, these
$MU
$SNDK
long positions were actually set up on Thursday and Friday. It's been four or five days now, and there have been many opportunities, including several swing trade chances.
It really has to be the US stock market—good liquidity and rapid volatility.
DYOR
DL_W59
Alright, although the CPI monthly rate didn't exceed the previous value, it was higher than expected.
The US pre-market has already reacted, showing a drop.
The December rate hike expectation is already close to 100%. The sentiment is not optimistic.
The main focus next is still on oil prices. If oil prices can steadily decline, it could help boost risk market sentiment.
Alright, although the CPI monthly rate didn't exceed the previous value, it was higher than expected.
The US pre-market has already reacted, showing a drop.
The December rate hike expectation is already close to 100%. The sentiment is not optimistic.
The main focus next is still on oil prices. If oil prices can steadily decline, it could help boost risk market sentiment.
DL_W59
Tonight the October CPI data will be released, and the market expects the month-on-month growth to continue slowing.
Due to the government shutdown last October (from October 1 to November 12), this time the year-on-year data will unusually not be released.
Since the November CPI will only be published after the December rate decision meeting, this CPI data may become an important basis for the December rate hike. Currently, the December rate hike expectation shown by CME is already above 80%. It has been somewhat priced in by the market.
Looking only at the expected values, all are lower than the previous values, which is still optimistic. If the released value meets or is below expectations, it will be positive; slightly above expectations but below previous values may be a small negative; above previous values will be directly negative.
Speaking of the oil prices that the market is watching, currently #WTI has fallen below $85, and #BZ has fallen below $90, both are the lowest points since September. Personally, as long as tonight's data is not particularly bad, risk markets should still get a boost.
I am still holding my long positions in Micron and SanDisk. Just waiting for the release at 9:30 PM.
I only hope that after tonight, the US and Iran can slowly ease tensions and not escalate actions further.
Because oil prices in November and December will directly affect inflation in December, January, and February, the December rate hike is not scary.
If the expectation is for more rate hikes in Q1 next year, that will be tough. DYOR
Tonight the October CPI data will be released, and the market expects the month-on-month growth to continue slowing.
Due to the government shutdown last October (from October 1 to November 12), this time the year-on-year data will unusually not be released.
Since the November CPI will only be published after the December rate decision meeting, this CPI data may become an important basis for the December rate hike. Currently, the December rate hike expectation shown by CME is already above 80%. It has been somewhat priced in by the market.
Looking only at the expected values, all are lower than the previous values, which is still optimistic. If the released value meets or is below expectations, it will be positive; slightly above expectations but below previous values may be a small negative; above previous values will be directly negative.
Speaking of the oil prices that the market is watching, currently #WTI has fallen below $85, and #BZ has fallen below $90, both are the lowest points since September. Personally, as long as tonight's data is not particularly bad, risk markets should still get a boost.
I am still holding my long positions in Micron and SanDisk. Just waiting for the release at 9:30 PM.
I only hope that after tonight, the US and Iran can slowly ease tensions and not escalate actions further.
Because oil prices in November and December will directly affect inflation in December, January, and February, the December rate hike is not scary.
If the expectation is for more rate hikes in Q1 next year, that will be tough. DYOR
Google $GOOGL added more during the day
Held until the US market opened at night
Let's see, preparing to find the right time to exit first
Then we'll see
DL_W59
Insiders: The US and Iran have both made concessions on nuclear issues and frozen assets.
Was the surprise given today? Sort of.
But after the news came out, #WTI briefly fell below $94, #BZ fell below $102.
BZ is dropping quite fast; previously the price difference between the two was $10, now the difference is only $7.
US stocks are also slightly up pre-market, and Bitcoin has also seen a rise on the 15-minute chart, though not much.
Let's observe again after the US market opens tonight.
At least it didn't shock the market.
Google $GOOGL long position still held.
Preparing to open a Micron long position 😂
DYOR
Insiders: The US and Iran have both made concessions on nuclear issues and frozen assets.
Was the surprise given today? Sort of.
But after the news came out, #WTI briefly fell below $94, #BZ fell below $102.
BZ is dropping quite fast; previously the price difference between the two was $10, now the difference is only $7.
US stocks are also slightly up pre-market, and Bitcoin has also seen a rise on the 15-minute chart, though not much.
Let's observe again after the US market opens tonight.
At least it didn't shock the market.
Google $GOOGL long position still held.
Preparing to open a Micron long position 😂
DYOR
DL_W59
Still, US stock contracts are fun
$GOOGL held on
Hope Trump can surprise the friends
Let oil prices continue to fall
Risk markets continue to 📈
Still, US stock contracts are fun
$GOOGL held on
Hope Trump can surprise the friends
Let oil prices continue to fall
Risk markets continue to 📈
DL_W59
Iran's Foreign Minister reveals a "two-day plan"; US compliance could restart Iran-US talks
Recent continuous consultations, on Monday #WTI fell below $101, #BZ fell below $110
Bitcoin also rebounded above 78, and some US stocks showed some recovery.
Not sure if Trump will push for talks in the last two days before the election; so far, there is no response.
The market is also worried whether Trump will launch military action again after the midterm elections.
If military action is launched, similar to the strikes in the first half of the year? This actually hardly changes anything. Even if it happens, the market's pricing of oil will definitely rise, but the increase should still be limited.
If ground troops are deployed, the risk is much greater, and Trump knows this.
Of course, if there is easing, oil prices will naturally fall, and risk market sentiment and funds will be boosted.
It's hard to predict now; we can only proceed step by step.
Overall, for myself, I am still holding short oil positions, already for four months. The fees are sometimes painfully high, but I still hold. If uncontrollable situations arise after the midterm elections, I need to prepare to reduce positions to avoid liquidation. Then wait for the APEC meeting on the 18th-19th.
As for Google's long positions, 280 is already a cost-effective level. If geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, I will definitely choose the right time to exit. Because this will continue to pressure US stocks and Bitcoin.
If easing happens, then I thank Trump.
Anyway, still holding for now. Let's see how this week goes.
DYOR
Iran's Foreign Minister reveals a "two-day plan"; US compliance could restart Iran-US talks
Recent continuous consultations, on Monday #WTI fell below $101, #BZ fell below $110
Bitcoin also rebounded above 78, and some US stocks showed some recovery.
Not sure if Trump will push for talks in the last two days before the election; so far, there is no response.
The market is also worried whether Trump will launch military action again after the midterm elections.
If military action is launched, similar to the strikes in the first half of the year? This actually hardly changes anything. Even if it happens, the market's pricing of oil will definitely rise, but the increase should still be limited.
If ground troops are deployed, the risk is much greater, and Trump knows this.
Of course, if there is easing, oil prices will naturally fall, and risk market sentiment and funds will be boosted.
It's hard to predict now; we can only proceed step by step.
Overall, for myself, I am still holding short oil positions, already for four months. The fees are sometimes painfully high, but I still hold. If uncontrollable situations arise after the midterm elections, I need to prepare to reduce positions to avoid liquidation. Then wait for the APEC meeting on the 18th-19th.
As for Google's long positions, 280 is already a cost-effective level. If geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, I will definitely choose the right time to exit. Because this will continue to pressure US stocks and Bitcoin.
If easing happens, then I thank Trump.
Anyway, still holding for now. Let's see how this week goes.
DYOR
DL_W59
Still holding the long position on Google, and after breaking below 280 last night, added more.
Then, after Micron closed out, waiting for below 900; it broke below last night, so there's another opportunity. Although it has rebounded near 900 now, the US stock market is closed.
But the price is still not very high. The main focus is back on oil prices.
Early this morning, the market released some news about a third country mediating US-Iran talks, and oil price #WTI fell from 105 to around 103, while the US stock market slightly rebounded at the close.
Next week, we will watch the midterm election situation. Historically, after midterm elections, risk markets (US stocks + Bitcoin) usually rebound.
But this year there are some situations, like the sudden BN security incident, which will probably slowly be digested emotionally.
The main factors remain oil prices, US-Iran geopolitics, and the midterm election next week. Once the results are out, it will be over.
I have to say, the volatility of the US stock market is still very strong; sometimes it can swing back and forth 1-2 times a day.
As long as there are no macro-level black swan events, the risk of core heavyweight stocks is still very low.
Overall, holding the position.
Last day of October, have a good weekend. First, calm down emotionally, and continue next week. #财报观察员：财报季回顾与展望
DYOR
