Conclusion first: Do not go long on the rebound. Short on the rise.
Objective market situation
Chart 1. The daily chart has confirmed a breakdown. The range is 812, not an exact price! See the chart for details! The turning point marking the end of the bearish structure is 84.
Chart 2. 4-hour level. There is a rebound around 79. Resistance above at 81/821. Below 792 there is still a vacuum zone.
Subjective view
With this kind of daily breakdown, unless there is a large volume candle reclaiming the price, the "non-bullish recovery" view from the past month will continue. It will test support again down at 7.6. Currently, the daily MACD is also below the zero line. So continuing to short on rebounds is reasonable.
At the 4-hour level, the 1/2/3 short positions given in the past two weeks started this downtrend after plundering 2. Last Friday's break below 815 ended the 1-hour bullish structure and continued the 4-hour bearish structure. Although there is a rebound around 79, combined with contract data, it is more a reduction of short positions rather than new long entries. Also, the Fibonacci 0.618 level has been effective multiple times since the decline and rebound starting from 8.7. The current 0.618 is around 83.
Trading advice
Combine the above different timeframes and follow the trend.
Short at 827-83, this is the optimal entry zone. Stop loss at 84.
If the market continues a low-volume rebound today and tomorrow, you can also short near 815. Stop loss around 83.
Of course, you can split positions at 815 and 83 with a stop loss at 84. Just trade according to your own timeframe. $BTC#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
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