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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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4045美元的黄金,你敢抄底吗? 从5500跌到4045,跌幅30%,所有人都在骂黄金避险神话破灭。但央行连续12个月偷偷买金——4000这个位置,到底是陷阱还是黄金坑? 先看表面:利空轰炸,但4000没破。 美联储10月28日刚开完会,利率维持3.75%-4.00%不变,投票10比2,两个委员主张加息,表态偏鹰,12月加息概率还在80%以上。美元指数102附近,美债收益率高企,中东紧张推高油价,通胀担忧又让美联储不敢松口。按理说,黄金该崩。 但它就在4000-4060来回摩擦,日内低点4016-4025,高点4067-4080,你看到的4045,正好卡在中间。跌不下去,也涨不上来。 第一件事:美联储越鹰,黄金越难受,但市场已经快不买账了。 高利率意味着持有黄金的机会成本高——钱放银行有4%利息,拿黄金一分不生。这是过去半年黄金从5500跌到4000的核心原因。 但你注意一个细节:利空砸了这么久,4000没破。 同样的鹰派信号,第一次跌3%,第二次跌1%,第三次市场直接横盘。什么叫利空钝化?这就是。 散户还在骂“黄金避险失灵”,央行已经在4000下方连续买了12个月。 第二件事:黄金现在不是避险资产,是“反美联储”资产。 很多人搞错了一件事:中东打仗,黄金该涨?不一定。油价被推高→通胀更黏→美联储更鹰→美元更强→黄金反而被压。 所以你现在买黄金,赌的不是地缘冲突,赌的是美联储什么时候认输。 机构已经把2026年末目标下调了,但普遍看2027年反弹到4500+。翻译成人话:短期还得熬,中期底部有支撑,长期央行在托底。 第三件事:技术面4000就是多空分水岭,没得商量。 日线/周线:价格低于20日均线(4130+)和50日均线,MACD空头动能还在,RSI中性偏弱。周线大阴之后反弹乏力,4000是心理+技术双重支撑,多次守住。失守看3975-3940。 4H/1H:4020-4060区间震荡,成交量一般,冲高回落是常态。结构还是空头主导,反弹只是修正。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 央行购金连续多月,中国央行9月大幅增持 4000多次测试守住,长期底部有支撑 地缘风险、去美元化、高债务环境仍在 2027年机构看反弹至4500+ 一边是: 美联储偏鹰,12月加息概率80%+ 美元强、美债收益率高,持有黄金机会成本大 油价推高通胀,反而压制黄金 技术面空头结构未破,20/50日均线压制 关键位置 上方阻力:4055-4070 → 4080-4100(趋势线+均线压力)→ 4130+ 下方支撑:4020-4030 → 4000(整数关+多空分水岭)→ 3975-3940 操作策略 短线(1-2天): 反弹到4055-4070轻仓空,止损4085-4100上方,目标4020→4000。回踩4015-4025出现企稳信号(锤子/吞没)才轻仓试多,止损3995下方,目标4050-4070。不破4000不重仓追多,不追高。 中线(1-2周): 4000-4100箱体高抛低吸。跌破3990并站稳,加空看3900-3940。强势突破4100并站稳,再转多看4130-4200。单笔风险不超过账户1-2%,杠杆中低,永续注意资金费率。 风控重点: 黄金日均波动常50-70美元,止损必须严格。盯美元指数、10年美债收益率、油价。别梭哈,分批进出。长期多头等月线企稳+宏观转向再布局。 黄金现在就像2023年的BTC—— 99%的人觉得“避险资产跌成这样,废了”,结果美联储一转向,直接干回前高。$BTC $ETH $XAU
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
PONS at $0.28, would you still buy it? Dropped from 0.97 to 0.28, a 71% plunge, everyone in the group is shouting for it to go to zero, but a single integrated message from Robinhood bounced it back to 0.30 within 15 minutes. Is it a dead cat bounce or the last dance of the shovel sellers? Some in the group are showing profits from short positions, others ask, "Can we still hold?" The 24-hour trading volume ranges from 33 million to 42 million, with a turnover rate of 22%—chips are being fiercely exchanged, but the price hasn't collapsed. On the surface: down 71% from ATH, down 45-50% in the past month, sentiment in the meme/launchpad sector has cooled off since the September frenzy. But on October 28, after Robinhood Wallet's integrated message, it surged to 0.30, rising 15-25% before retreating. First thing: A 71% drop doesn't mean the project is dead; it means the narrative has cooled off. Back in September, Binance Alpha launch, perpetuals launch, Coinbase spot listing, and a 30% supply burn pushed sentiment directly to 0.97. Now the hype has faded, but the protocol is still running: 80% of protocol fees are automatically TWAP repurchased and burned PONS, with about 672 million circulating, close to total supply. The price dropped 71%, but buyback and burn haven't stopped. DEX volume over 30 days has declined from the September peak. No matter how good the deflation mechanism is, if no one mints tokens, deflation is just lonely. Second thing: It's not Robinhood's own token; it's a shovel seller on Robinhood Chain. Many get excited just hearing Robinhood. Wake up: PONS is a non-custodial, permissionless launchpad on Robinhood Chain (an Arbitrum tech L2 focusing on tokenized stocks/RWA), not an official Robinhood-issued coin. Users create fixed supply ERC-20 tokens on it, trade via bonding curves, and graduate to Uniswap v4. On October 29, there was news that PONS will support more tokens on Robinhood Chain; the narrative isn't dead, it just shifted from "get rich quick" to "waiting for the wind." Third thing: The technicals have reached a critical point to watch closely. Support: 0.265-0.27 (recent lows), 0.25-0.26 (stronger), 0.22-0.24 (if broken, watch closely) Resistance: 0.29-0.30 (yesterday's high), 0.31-0.32, 0.35+ On October 28, it broke out of a short-term descending wedge with increased volume but failed to hold 0.30, falling back to 0.28. RSI fell from overbought to neutral short-term. Perpetual open interest and funding rates show active speculation; wild volatility is normal. 0.30 has hit the resistance twice. The third time, will it break through or get pushed back? Bull vs. bear, you decide: On one side: - 80% fee buyback and burn, deflation mechanism is real - Robinhood Chain narrative + October 28 integration catalyst - Funding rate slightly positive, bulls have a slight edge - 71% drop from ATH, oversold rebound demand exists On the other side: - Anonymous team, reliant on a single chain ecosystem - Launchpad sentiment cooled from September peak - Failed to hold 0.30 twice, psychological pressure huge - BTC weak near 80k, market oscillation draining liquidity Trading strategy Short-term (1-3 days): Lightly buy in batches at 0.27-0.275, strict stop loss below 0.265. Target 0.29-0.31, partial take profit. If volume breaks through 0.30 and holds, add positions. If rebound is weak or breaks below 0.265, lightly short with target 0.25, stop loss above 0.285. Leverage ≤5-10x, single trade risk ≤1-2% of total capital. Mid-term (1-4 weeks): Wait for 0.30 to hold + market stabilization, target 0.35-0.40; if it breaks 0.25, further downside possible. Build positions in batches, avoid all-in at once. PONS now is like the shovel sellers in every cycle— The most stable in a gold rush are the shovel sellers, but when shovels don't sell, they're the first to be sold as scrap. $BTC $ETH $PONS

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