The Federal Reserve held steady in October, with BTC pulled back from around 79,000 to $81,260, reaching an intraday high of $81,560. In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled $57.53 million, with short liquidations at $43.31 million, accounting for 75.3%.
Shorts are getting hit, and the price is recovering. Everyone is saying: the bad news is priced in, it's stable.
But the derivatives market tells a different story.
On Deribit, the 1-week skew dropped sharply from about 10% a week ago to below 1%. Short-term panic has indeed eased—no one is paying a premium for "collapse tomorrow."
But if you look at longer terms: 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month options, investors are still net buyers of put options. The BTC put option expiring in 30 days with a strike price of $65,000 is the most actively traded contract in the past 24 hours.
Short-term pretending all is well, mid-to-long term buying insurance. This is not a contradiction; it’s the standard stance of institutions.
The most active Bitcoin option before the decision is the 72,000 strike put option expiring on December 25. Traders aren’t betting on whether the Fed will hike tonight; they’re betting on what will happen at the December meeting.
After the decision, CME data shows the probability of a December rate hike rose from 79.7% to 82.6%, not down, but up.
Spot is smiling, options are calculating.
Waller’s refusal to provide forward guidance is the most critical blow.
Not telling you the next move is equivalent to saying: from now until December, every PCE and every nonfarm payroll could become a trigger to crash the market. A market without guidance is not safer, it’s more unpredictable.
In this environment, spot "holding steady" is for retail to see. The $65,000 put option is insurance for themselves.
81,000 is emotional repair. The $65,000 insurance policy is smart money paying for "what if it drops."
If you only look at the price and think "it’s stable," check the strike price of the most active contract. The market is telling you with real money: it doesn’t believe the phrase "the bad news is priced in."
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