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Gold has fallen below the $4000 mark for the first time since July 29. Is it a good time to buy? Logically, gold near $4000 can be bought, but it is advisable to be cautious and buy in smaller portions rather than making a heavy purchase immediately. The reasons are as follows: 1. From a macro perspective, gold's rebound depends on Brent crude prices falling from their highs to relieve energy pressure, and on whether the Fed raises interest rates in December or not. Therefore, the key timeframe to watch is November to December. If the US-Iran conflict eases, Brent crude prices fall from highs, and even if there is a rate hike in December, it would be a dovish hike since continuing to send hawkish signals might lead the market to expect a review of the rate hike cycle, which is unfavorable for risk assets, especially the current US stock market. Thus, the macro turning point is the new starting point for gold to restart. 2. From a technical perspective, gold has been declining since the high on January 26, forming a five-wave downtrend. Whether it will consolidate or continue to explore lower levels depends on whether it can break below the new low after falling below 3950 around the macro turning point in November-December. #Middle East oil supply risks rise again, oil prices continue to strengthen. If it breaks the new low but quickly rebounds back above 3950 and shows strong rebounds over several trading days, buying to wait for a new trend to start is possible. Conversely, if it breaks the new low and the subsequent rebound cannot quickly return above 3950 or $4000, and the rebound is weak, caution is needed. Without improvement on the macro side, further correction is very likely. 3. Currently, gold falling below $4000 and the hourly chart indeed triggered a large number of buy orders, but the subsequent rebound is weak, indicating the crisis is not yet resolved. If next week...