ETH at $2315, are you ready to cut losses?
ETFs have withdrawn $1 billion in a month, the worst October in 8 years, everyone is shouting "ETH is done"—but BitMine quietly bought 10,000 coins, with holdings approaching 5% of circulating supply. At this $2315 level, you're afraid to sell and miss out, afraid to hold and see it go to zero, so what exactly are you waiting for?
Let's look at the surface first: the drop is unrecognizable, but someone is still buying.
In the past week, ETH dropped 3-5%, and in the past month, 13-14%, marking one of ETH's worst October performances in 8 years. The daily RSI fell to 32-35, close to oversold. The price broke below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, clearly showing a bearish setup.
But last week BitMine bought 10,452 ETH, with total holdings close to 4.95% of circulating supply, and they are still increasing staking.
At the same time, the US spot ETH ETF saw a net outflow of over $1 billion in October, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing the majority.
First point: ETFs are running, but that’s not the whole truth.
ETF net outflow in October was $1-1.1 billion, with a single-day peak near $100 million. Sounds scary?
But you have to compare: BTC ETFs occasionally have inflows, ETH ETFs are almost all outflows. What does this mean? Institutions have a lower risk appetite for ETH than BTC. Short term, this is bearish, no doubt.
But on the other side, BitMine is hoarding ETH as a treasury asset, with holdings nearing 5% of circulating supply. ETFs are selling paper ETH, BitMine is buying real tokens.
Second point: Oversold is real, but oversold is not a buy signal.
RSI at 32-35, close to oversold. Many get excited seeing this number: "Bottom fishing!"
I advise you not to rush. Oversold can get more oversold. In the 2022 bear market, ETH’s RSI stayed below 30 for three full weeks, and the price dropped another 20%.
What really matters is not the RSI but the price levels:
2300: psychological barrier + recent low, currently consolidating here.
2260-2280: next buffer zone.
2200: strong demand zone, considered a solid bottom by many analysts.
2150-2100: near the 200-day moving average, a key Fibonacci level.
Third point: FOMC is the real judge.
The Fed meeting on October 28-29 has a 90% market expectation to keep rates at 3.75%-4.00%. But September CPI at 3.7%, PPI is hot, inflation stickiness remains, and the market has priced in a significant chance of a 25bp hike in December.
If the Fed’s tone is dovish → risk assets get a breather, ETH rebounds and recovers.
If the Fed is hawkish + dot plot leans hawkish → $2315 likely isn’t the bottom, $2200 will be tested.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On the bullish side:
BitMine keeps accumulating, holdings near 5% of circulating supply
Staking rate over 35%, exchange reserves at multi-year lows, circulating supply tightening
RSI oversold, technical rebound momentum exists
200-day moving average (2150-2200 area) still supports from below
On the bearish side:
ETF net outflow over $1 billion in October, low institutional risk appetite
Foundation sold 2,785 coins, Arthur Hayes reduced holdings, whales moving coins to exchanges
Glamsterdam testnet delayed, short-term lack of strong catalysts
Daily chart bearish alignment, MACD below zero line, trend not reversed
Risk appetite suppressed before FOMC
Trading strategy
Short term (1-3 days):
Hold above 2300 + volume surge + RSI rebound, light long positions can be tried, target 2330-2350, stop loss below 2280. If volume breaks below 2300, light short positions or wait for a rebound to 2350 to short, target 2250-2200.
Swing (1-2 weeks):
Bullish: wait for strong support zone 2200-2250 to buy in batches, stop loss below 2100, target 2400 then 2500+. Only after reclaiming and holding above 2400 should you consider adding positions.
Bearish: short at resistance 2350-2400, stop loss above 2450, target 2200.
Neutral: range trade between 2300-2400, position size no more than 20-30% of total capital.
Mid to long term:
Fundamentals are not bad—high staking, institutional holdings, upgrade roadmap all intact. But be prepared for possible volatility testing 2000-2200 again. Dollar-cost averaging is fine, full leverage is not. Wait for ETF flow reversal, Glamsterdam launch, and macro easing signals before heavy positions.
At this level, the hardest part isn’t the bears or bulls, it’s you who fears selling at the bottom and holding to zero.
The main players love this spot the most—it’s the middle ground where you neither want to sell nor hold. $BTC$ETH$DOOD
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
