📉 Does token unlocking necessarily lead to a crash?
Not necessarily.
Unlocking means more tokens may enter circulation, but three key factors truly affect the price:
🔹 Unlock ratio: How much does the new supply account for the existing circulating supply?
🔹 Holder behavior: Will holders keep the tokens after unlocking or choose to sell?
🔹 Market liquidity: Can the buy side absorb the potential selling pressure?
Also consider an often overlooked factor: whether the market has already priced in the unlocking expectations in advance.
⚠️ A drop before unlocking doesn’t mean the price will definitely continue to fall after unlocking; no drop on the unlocking day doesn’t mean there’s no risk afterward.
Don’t treat the unlocking calendar as a price prediction chart; treat it as a starting point for risk analysis.
When assessing unlocking risk, which indicator do you look at first?
#ONEANetwork #Web3 #TokenEconomics
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