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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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5600跌到4000,黄金牛市死了? 上周跌4%,跌破整数关,全网都在喊“黄金完了”。但我翻完央行持仓数据,发现一个让人后背发凉的真相——跑的全是杠杆,捡筹码的没出声。 先看表面:惨,真惨。 从1月高点5580跌到4000,25%没了。上周录得6月以来最差周跌幅,日线均线全空头排列,20日线4155、50日线4340,价格在下面趴着。RSI跌到27-35,超卖,但没底背离。 全是“黄金牛市结束了”“去美元化是骗局”。 你信了? 第一件事:跌的原因不是黄金不行了,是利率太贵了。 10年期美债收益率还在5%附近。 持有黄金的机会成本高得离谱——你把钱放国债吃5%无风险利息,凭什么拿一个不生息的金属? 再加上9月CPI 3.7%偏热、PPI强劲、油价高企,市场赌12月加息概率高达75-80%。美元偏强,黄金被摁在地上摩擦。 不是黄金不值钱,是“拿着黄金的钱”太贵了。 利率一松,第一个起飞的就是它。 第二件事:你割肉的时候,央行在闷声扫货。 新兴市场央行——中国、印度、土耳其——今年持续增持,超过1000吨。 他们在4000以上买的,现在4000以下,他们跑了吗?没有。 ETF持仓在回调中没大幅增加,说明什么? 短线投机资金在跑,长线配置资金在等。 第三件事:技术面到了“信仰拷问区”,但还没到抄底发令枪。 强支撑:3980-4000(整数关+近期低点集群),破了看3960-3940(7月低点),再破3900。 阻力:4040-4075(前支撑转阻力),再上4100-4120,4150-4200是均线密集区。 形态:下降通道内,下方流动性扫荡后反弹,但没站上关键均线前,这波只是空头反弹,不是反转。 周一反弹0.3-0.6%,超卖修复,别激动。 FOMC之前,任何反弹都可能是陷阱。 多空对决,你自己看 空头说: 利率5%,持金成本太高 12月加息概率75-80% 油价回落,通胀预期降温 均线全空头,下降通道完好 多头说: 央行1000吨实打实在买 从5600跌25%,修正够深了 RSI超卖,技术性反弹随时来 高债务+地缘不确定,中期逻辑没坏 短期我偏空,中期我偏多。 但FOMC(10月28日)之前,谁重仓谁傻 操作策略 FOMC前(1-3天): 轻仓或观望。 手痒做空:反弹4040-4070高空,止损4100上方,目标4000→3980→3960。 手痒做多:守住3980-4000出现锤子/吞没再轻仓,止损3960下方,目标4040-4070 事件交易(FOMC+PCE): 声明偏鸽 → 反弹4100-4150 偏鹰或PCE超预期 → 破3960,看3900甚至更低 决议前减仓或对冲,别拿命赌方向。 中长线: 3900-4000区间分批建仓实物/ETF,别一把梭。 止损?中长线看的是央行购金和去美元化,不是一根K线。但仓位别超总资金20%。 黄金现在就像2020年3月的比特币—— 疫情砸盘,所有人说“避险资产失效了”,结果半年后翻倍。 这次也一样: 你不是输给了黄金,你是输给了“别人都在卖”的幻觉。 $BTC $ETH $XAU
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
0.0022 DOOD, doubling in a day, the group is all shouting "get on board," but I smell a liquidation coming. No news, no positive catalysts, NFT floor only up 7%, yet DOOD surged from 0.0011 to 0.0026, volume exceeding market cap, negative funding rate at -2%, shorts getting crushed on the ground. Is this a pump by a manipulator giving away money, or a trap dug for you? Let's look at the surface first: the rise is unsettling. 24-hour increase over 50%, with an extreme single-day surge of 212%, market cap once hitting $38 million, but volume reaching $100-200 million — volume is tens of times the market cap, this is not investing, this is a casino opening a table. NFT floor price only rose 7%, but the token doubled. No one is buying NFTs, gamblers are bloodthirsty in perpetuals. First thing: a surge without news is the most dangerous "good news." No partnerships, no upgrades, no big influencers hyping, DOOD suddenly pumps 212%. You think it's leaked good news? Wrong. A surge without news is essentially liquidity harvesting. Small cap coins can be doubled with just a few million dollars. They pump it until you FOMO, chase the high, open longs — then the manipulator dumps chips on you while you stand on the peak enjoying the breeze. Second thing: negative funding rate is not good news, it's shorts carrying you — but the sedan chair can flip anytime. Funding rate deeply negative, close to -2% over 8 hours, shorts paying longs, shorts getting liquidated predominantly. Sounds good? Not at all. Negative funding means crowded shorts, shorts getting squeezed, price pushed up. But it also means longs are extremely crowded. Once shorts are liquidated and buying disappears, where will the price go but back? Open Interest significantly rising, negative funding + short liquidations = short-term upward momentum. But momentum is not a trend. Negative funding in small coins is a candy followed by a slap. Third thing: technically, this is a "volume breakout followed by consolidation," not a "bullish quick return." From 0.0011-0.0014 to 0.0026, volume breakout, short-term overbought. Support: 0.0020-0.0018 (strong pullback support), stronger at 0.0015-0.0013. Resistance: 0.0025-0.0028, then 0.0030-0.0035 (previous highs/psychological levels). Currently at 0.0022, caught between support and resistance. Failing to break 0.0025 is a false breakout; breaking below 0.0020 means the retracement begins. Long vs short battle, judge for yourself. Longs say: Negative funding, shorts still paying OI rising, shorts liquidated predominantly Volume breakout, bottom structure formed Small cap, pumps fast Shorts say: No news surge, pure speculation Volume exceeds market cap, abnormal turnover NFT floor only up 7%, fundamentals not following Longs crowded, no one to catch after shorts liquidate Treasury tokens potentially pressuring exchanges Trading strategy Aggressive short-term: Hold volume above 0.0022-0.0023 and break 0.0025, light position chasing longs, target 0.0028-0.0032, stop loss below 0.0020. Negative funding is an advantage, but set trailing take profit, don’t be greedy. Conservative approach (recommended): Wait for pullback to 0.0019-0.0021 to stabilize then accumulate in batches, stop loss 0.0017-0.0018. Target 0.0026-0.0028, second target previous high. Short idea: Break below 0.0020 with volume, or bearish divergence/volume contraction, short on rebound, target 0.0016-0.0015, stop loss above 0.0023. DOOD now is like the busiest table in a casino — Winners reluctant to leave, losers trying to recover losses, manipulators taking the rake. You think you are trading, but actually you are being traded. A surge without news is not an opportunity, it’s a trap. $BTC $ETH $DOOD

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