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鹰猎(象鹰一样猎杀)
鹰猎(象鹰一样猎杀)
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这轮调整确实不能只从加密市场内部找原因。10月22日美股纳指跌2.6%,费城半导体指数重挫6.72%,Meta、英伟达、AMD等AI相关标的集体被抛售,背后是AI资本开支担忧叠加中东局势推高油价,风险偏好明显降温。这种宏观压力传导到币圈,比特币即便有ETF资金流入也难以独立走强。 ETF数据本身也需要拆开看。10月19日至21日BTC现货ETF确实连续净流入约10.75亿美元,其中21日单日约5.25亿美元,但这一轮流入高度集中在BlackRock的IBIT,其他基金仍在净流出;拉长到10月整体,ETF资金并未形成稳定正向趋势。这说明机构买盘存在,但更像配置型承接,而不是推动趋势反转的进攻性资金。 从结构上看,当前是“宏观压制 + 杠杆出清 + ETF慢买”并存。ETF能托底,但托不住短线杠杆踩踏。BTC 8万美元、ETH 2350美元确实是关键观察位,失守后波动会进一步放大。周末临近、流动性可能下降,加上10月28日FOMC会议临近,市场大概率维持谨慎。 对习惯跟踪宏观数据和链上结构的人来说,现在更该盯的是:ETF流入是否从“单日脉冲”变成“连续趋势”$ETH $BTC
Kidt
Kidt
This round of adjustment is no longer just an issue within the crypto circle; the sell-off in US tech stocks, macroeconomic pressures, and selling in the crypto market are resonating. BTC's rebound failed, US tech stocks plunged, and ETF buying temporarily couldn't reverse the trend. At the close of US markets on October 22, the Nasdaq fell 2.6%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.21%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged about 6.7%. Tech stocks were the main targets of selling, and risk assets were generally under pressure. Regarding funds, from October 19 to 21, BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows for three consecutive days totaling about $1.075 billion, with a single-day inflow of about $525 million on the 21st. Institutional buying is still present, but BTC fell to around $81,000, indicating that selling pressure from other market channels is enough to offset the demand brought by ETFs. BTC previously rebounded to above $84,000 but was resisted; currently, $81,800 to $82,300 is short-term resistance, and $80,000 is a key support level to watch below. ETH weakened in sync, with key support at $2,350; if broken, it may further test $2,300. From the current market structure, the earlier rebound has not changed the short-term weakness, and ETF inflows have yet to stabilize prices. My judgment is that this round of adjustment may not be over yet; over the weekend, focus on the risk of BTC testing $80,000 again and ETH continuing to follow down.

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