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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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美伊动态消息,一条消息需要作降级修正: 1,昨日前文所说,美国能源署提议暂时解除对“影子舰队”的制裁,以缓冲国际能源的供应问题,但是今天市场机构分析,影子舰队所带来的能源输出可能不足以对冲霍尔木兹海峡封锁带来的空缺,所以 2,华盛顿对德黑兰的经济制裁加剧,已经影响到伊朗国内银行与境外银行的外汇结算通道,美国对伊朗的经济制裁加剧 3,伊朗与阿曼的“霍尔木兹海峡”新协议谈判已经完成,但是是否可以启用,要看美伊之间的政治谈判 目前的局势来看,暂时排除了霍尔木兹海峡之外的可替代运输通道,意味着不管是能源供应还是地缘政治,回归锚定美伊局势上 对于美伊局势,目前来看有效信息并不多,我个人最坏的打算认为转折是在10月27日以后——11月3日之前,如果此期间没有良性改变,对于美伊局势真的要改为悲观!#霍尔木兹商船遇袭,石油运输持续承压
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
October 15 US-Iran Situation Update!
Netanyahu has clearly stated that he will not attack Iran before the election, further confirming previous speculation that the military pressure on Iran was a choice made for Netanyahu's election. Of course, in the short term, this is actually good for the US-Iran situation. #Saudi Aramco headquarters attacked, crude oil supply under focus The US Department of Energy is considering postponing sanctions on the "shadow fleet" to ease international energy supply, while the International Energy Agency, after initially releasing 20 million barrels of oil, was questioned by the US, which said the release was insufficient and hopes to release 100 million barrels of crude oil. These two pieces of news clearly indicate that the US side still has concerns about international energy supply. Whether it was the previous agreement with Russia or the current demand for the IEA to accelerate crude oil release, the essence is still the worry about the impact of high oil prices. According to media reports, based on satellite images and radar, Iran's previous attacks on Saudi and other energy facilities were planned with the aim of destroying the alternative energy export route through the Strait of Hormuz. So far, this plan has obviously succeeded. After multiple data verifications, the so-called alternative transportation plan for the Strait of Hormuz seems unlikely. Considering the overall situation and oil price trends, the short-term situation is temporarily eased. Although Brent prices have fallen, they have not dropped out of the danger zone. It is worth noting that WTI US oil prices continue to rise, clearly indicating that energy supply in the US market is tighter compared to the international market. If this price trend continues, the pressure on Trump domestically will only increase. So next, if Trump faces more original

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