TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号TraderS18
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If we are a bit more rigorous, it can be roughly said: "There was a rebound attempt in mid to late November, further support from the funding side from the end of November to December, and December will decide how far this rebound can go."
Liquidity has a short window in December, with real improvement likely after late February. The rebound corresponds to three phases: mid to late November is an event-driven rebound, from around December 10 to early January is the highest quality, and from January to mid-February we need to guard against a second dip.
In short, keep a close eye on the TGA account withdrawals.
TraderS | 缺德道人
Referring again to the market at the same period last year, it's actually not that pessimistic.
I tend to believe that after yesterday's incident with Huang, market sentiment has fully settled, but clearing positions still takes time. And liquidity returning will take even more time.
To put it in the most straightforward and direct way: after mid to late November, market liquidity will start to return, and the market trend will rebound. The current sentiment-driven pullback is a continuation of yesterday's clearing, which is a good thing. #美国10月整体与核心CPI双超预期
Referring again to the market at the same period last year, it's actually not that pessimistic.
I tend to believe that after yesterday's incident with Huang, market sentiment has fully settled, but clearing positions still takes time. And liquidity returning will take even more time.
To put it in the most straightforward and direct way: after mid to late November, market liquidity will start to return, and the market trend will rebound. The current sentiment-driven pullback is a continuation of yesterday's clearing, which is a good thing. #美国10月整体与核心CPI双超预期
Anyway, now that oil prices have come down, as long as the downward trend stabilizes, next month's inflation data will still improve. Of course, the premise is that Trump doesn't cause more trouble.
No matter which party comes to power, they have to take public opinion into account. One of the biggest public opinions in the US is not accepting a long-term decline in the US stock market, so someone will come up with solutions. #美伊和谈传出新方案，霍尔木兹通航能否恢复？
Tonight's CPI is a data that adds insult to injury, fully exceeding expectations, just endure it, what else can be done #美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？
Alright, the CME data is out: the probability of a 25BP rate hike in December is 86.4%, and the probability of a 50BP hike is 13.6%. Compared to the 100% bet on a 25BP hike before the data was released, this is an increase of more than ten points.
The current market situation inevitably reminds me of the liquidity crunch during the US government shutdown at the same time last year. Back then, the crypto market also experienced the big drop on October 11, and this year it was a hack... It's really a rhythm resonance.
So according to last year's rhythm, does that mean improvement won't come until early 2027? #美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？
CPI data is going to be released again tonight, but given the current market context, the impact of this data on risk markets may be discounted compared to before. Not to mention that the current market focus is on whether the AI bubble will burst, and whether this is the end of a major cycle or just a temporary correction.
Based on Waller's remarks, the probability of a rate hike at the December CME has been pushed to an astonishing 99.1%, and the market debate has even shifted to whether the hike will be 25BP or 50BP. Therefore, the weight of today's CPI data has been greatly reduced.
Of course, given the severe decline in AI concept stocks, especially hardware stocks, 25BP is already enough; if it goes up by 50BP, it might cause widespread carnage.
Although oil prices have fallen to the 80s, it is too late to affect today's data. Even if low prices persist afterward, the impact can only start from next month's data. Also, due to the government shutdown last October causing missing data, today's data only has month-on-month figures without year-on-year comparison. However, this might be a good thing since oil prices were still in the 50-60 range last October, so removing an inevitably ugly year-on-year figure is quite welcome.
Unless some shocking surprise tonight lowers the probability of a December rate hike, regardless of the probability, a hike in December is inevitable, and the market is already mentally prepared for it. Going forward, the more important focus will be on the earnings reports of major companies and the progress of Anthropic's IPO. #美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？
Besides the drop in oil prices, US Treasury yields are also falling. If the original plan to start releasing funds from the TGA account in mid to late November goes ahead and liquidity returns, then a rebound should be due around that time. The only question is whether the current long positions will still be held when the rebound begins in about 10 days.
TraderS | 缺德道人
Although the entire market has been discussing the Nvidia controversy all day today, the more important factor affecting the market—oil prices—is actually falling.
As long as oil prices steadily decline, inflation eases, CPI/PCE and other data look good, interest rate hike expectations weaken, and even Trump's approval rating can recover.
This removes the most important premise that previously caused the market to fall, making other minor details less significant.
So don't be confused by the current noisy chaos; crude oil is the anchor of the market. When oil falls, everything thrives. #英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注 $CL $NVDA
The previous widespread market concern was that Anthropic's IPO would drain the already scarce liquidity, but unexpectedly, today Nvidia's Jensen Huang's scandal abruptly shattered market expectations.
Previously, the market valued Anthropic between 1.5-2 trillion USD, but the market is unpredictable. Now, with major AI concept stocks generally slashing prices, Anthropic's valuation has even been downgraded to between 1-1.2 trillion USD.
Normally, Nvidia's turmoil would mostly be an internal company matter, but now it has become a case of misfortune compounding misfortune, adding insult to injury. The market, already shaken by steep declines in storage, Google, and Intel, now appears even more unstable.
Friends who were preparing to jump on the Anthropic bandwagon shouldn't rush now. At that time, there were no cheap or valuable targets in the market, so it was natural to bet money on this unknown scenario. But now, with cheap chips bleeding everywhere, chasing Anthropic's train no longer seems very wise.
Those wanting to get on board Anthropic can wait until after the IPO stabilizes, especially after SPCX's big drop in July has shed its bubble. After all, missing out is much more comfortable than being trapped.
Coincidentally, tomorrow night I will be live on OKX Planet with a group of friends discussing the Anthropic IPO topic. Welcome to listen live. #Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 $ANTHROPIC
Although the entire market has been discussing the Nvidia controversy all day today, the more important factor affecting the market—oil prices—is actually falling.
As long as oil prices steadily decline, inflation eases, CPI/PCE and other data look good, interest rate hike expectations weaken, and even Trump's approval rating can recover.
This removes the most important premise that previously caused the market to fall, making other minor details less significant.
So don't be confused by the current noisy chaos; crude oil is the anchor of the market. When oil falls, everything thrives. #英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注 $CL $NVDA
When the market is bad, people look everywhere for good news, but who knows when it might suddenly reverse? Today there’s a major mainstream news item hiding good news: Anthropic has spent $3.4 billion to purchase gas-fired power generation equipment to supply power to its data centers.
This news undoubtedly lays the groundwork for the Anthropic roadshow that may start next week. After all, making such a large purchase of long-cycle infrastructure equipment shows confidence in the future potential for increased computing power.
Although rumors are spreading everywhere that Anthropic might cancel its IPO, and some mock the $ANT ticker as unlucky like Ant Financial, prone to failure, such a huge project supporting millions of workers’ livelihoods will be supported regardless of which faction takes charge. It’s just a matter of redistributing the pie.
Previously, Elon Musk rapidly built large-scale data centers by massively purchasing power generation equipment, enabling him to sell computing power for profit. The shortage of computing power won’t change in just a few days due to stock price fluctuations.
Some places with other economic pillars might not care about computing power centers, but there are always poorer, less developed areas that welcome them. It’s just a matter of building in different locations.
Simple math shows that this round of major decline is similar to the SPCX plunge to 104 after listing, both clearing out low-leverage positions at 3x and 5x multiples. Next might be a sideways movement instead of further drops to shake out retail investors.
Because further drops would give away cheap chips, and immediate rallies would hand money to retail investors, only a sideways consolidation dragging the market into despair before a restart is the best scenario. $ANTHROPIC
