诸葛投研✊
诸葛投研✊
17年进圈，9年web3老玩家，券商原持牌投顾。合约爆过仓，现在只玩主流币现货，向段永平看齐。
34Following
1.8Kfollowers
Feed
Livestream
Feed
I've seen many people say that Brother Maji has given up on $ETH, abandoned the long position, is afraid to go long, and has cleared his positions to exit Hyperliquid.
Actually, that's not true; people misunderstood. He hasn't exited the market but transferred his funds to Papertrade, where you can mine by losing money 😂
Since Brother Maji entered Hyperliquid last May, he has been all-in with high leverage on ETH, but he hit the bear market from last October until now and has lost 37.56 million USD.
Maybe he figured it out: instead of pure losses, why not earn some mining interest and airdrops through losses?
But I think a slow bull market is about to come 😂 I've basically maxed out my positions. Switching to a questionable platform now, I don't know if it's a blessing or a curse.
$ETH was the main stage for the weekend's liquidation wave, with $507 million liquidated in 24 hours, more than $BTC's $324 million. After a round of chip structure cleanup, it's actually healthier, and when the bull market comes, it can rise more than 99% of coins.
Of course, it's not the time for a big bull yet. BTC is stuck below 75,000, with MA7 (76,000) and MA25 (79,000) pressing down as resistance. RSI at 54 shows no momentum, and 73,000 is the iron bottom for the past two months. Until it breaks back above 76,000, it's weak consolidation, no reversal yet.
BTCSpot
+531.53 USDT
+20.50%Today, putting UNI, HYPE, and OKB together, all have positive catalysts, so why is there no positive feedback in the market?
$UNI fell the hardest last night, dropping 6 points, and only rebounded 1.6 points this morning. Bitwise submitted 11 strategy ETFs to the SEC, and this is the first time it has been included in this basket, meaning it has moved one step from governance tokens to configurable assets. But the market performance is poor, the price is stuck around $7, and the direction is unclear. The fee rate is at the limit, indicating crowded longs; once there is any disturbance, it’s easy to trigger a concentrated sell-off.
$HYPE rose last week but gave all gains back this week. Elysium went live yesterday, and on the first day, the only supported applications were Pump.fun and Fomo; the order book reading function will take another four weeks. Institutional short positions have unrealized profits exceeding ten million, and buying interest is really gone. Without panic selling, this kind of drop won’t have a V-shaped rebound. The technology is indeed launched, but the product hasn’t reached the stage to change valuation yet.
$OKB In the afternoon, OKX launched four new tokenized stock markets, marking OKX’s first real volume push in the tokenized stock track. The product line is developing in the most imaginative direction, yet it’s falling, down over 11 points in seven days. The opening was lively but OKB didn’t rise, indicating this narrative has already been priced in by the market.
My view: The positive news from the three is all slow-moving variables; it takes months from ETF filing to approval, and new listings also take time to transmit value.
Waller turned hawkish, raising interest rates by 50 basis points, even harsher than expected!
The market originally thought a rate hike in December was highly likely, at most a 25% increase, but Waller said: if the CPI increase is around 0.3% or higher, the Fed might need to raise rates by 50 basis points in December. Once this statement came out, the crypto community started to panic again!
$BTC Daily chart: Around 73,000 is the densest liquidation zone for bulls, and the price is already close. With a confirmed rate hike, this cluster will be cleared first; below that is a short zone, with a moderate cluster only at 71,000, and further down at 66,000 there are only sporadic buy orders.
In terms of timing, this expectation is suppressing the market before December. If tonight's CPI is really hot, it will directly trigger the 73,000 level.
My stance is also bearish. If 73,000 breaks, then look at 68,000-70,000 first, and wait until it's cleared before making further moves. Hold steady on spot positions, but reduce leverage on contracts, and close positions if necessary, as high leverage carries liquidation risk. #美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？
$ZEC upgrade has truly landed! But why did the price drop instead of rising?
This NU7 upgrade brings significant technical improvements: block time shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, network throughput increased to 6.6 TPS; wallet synchronization requires loading less data, making it more user-friendly. However, the coin price dropped to around 1160.
The reason is the upgrade changed the fee distribution: 60% of the fees must be saved and will only be released to miners in 2031, so miners currently only receive 40%.
Although on-chain usage data looks good, miners’ immediate income has directly decreased. Plus, privacy coins have always faced compliance restrictions, setting a ceiling, so despite the positive upgrade, the market doesn’t respond favorably.
My judgment: ZEC has achieved faster privacy, but technical upgrades and real buying pressure are always separate matters. If 1160 doesn’t hold, I expect a drop back to 1050.
US tech stocks surged yesterday, but BTC didn't even touch back its key integer level. This kind of market divergence is the most direct signal. Why are traditional risk assets rising while crypto is still oscillating?
$BTC The US stock rebound isn't followed by Bitcoin due to the chronic bleeding of ETFs. Last week, spot ETFs led by IBIT saw a net outflow of about $1.282 billion. Tonight at 21:30 before the CPI release, the market is betting along the 75,000 line and interest rate hike expectations. A hot CPI reading would push the December rate hike expectation above 80%, putting immediate pressure on 75,000 again.
$ETH Even weaker than BTC, spot ETFs have had net outflows for eight consecutive trading days totaling $640 million, and ETH/BTC has fallen to its lowest since mid-August. My view: high beta has turned into downward elasticity here; if it can't close above 2300, I see weakness. Only a break above 2346 would trigger $932 million short liquidations.
$SOL Grinding around 86, Jump Crypto has staked 450,000 tokens on-chain as a long-term signal, but the same address transferring 1.223 million tokens into Coinbase Prime is a looming sell pressure, and fees have turned negative. My judgment: after the non-farm payroll and CPI events pass, it should lead the rally.
Before CPI, US stocks rising while BTC doesn't follow is itself the most honest indicator of selling pressure.
$AVAX has been a bit awkward these past couple of days. The New York Stock Exchange has chosen it as the settlement layer for its tokenized stock trading platform, yet the coin price hasn't really risen much, and many people have been asking me what's going on.
Let me first clarify what this coin is for: it is an L1 public chain targeting RWA institutions. Unlike Ethereum, it is specifically designed to issue customized chains for institutions, with compliance where needed and speed where needed. Its job is to move government bonds, stocks, and stablecoins onto the chain.
Yesterday, after the news broke, the coin price just touched around 9 USD. Considering that Goldman Sachs' hundred-billion-dollar US Treasury fund and Japan's tens-of-billions securities have been moved onto it, the on-chain RWA has genuinely reached a scale of 1.7 billion USD.
So, is it a good project? My judgment: fundamentally, it is competitive among L1s and truly has scenarios in use. But there is a pitfall that is easily overlooked: the NYSE used its technology to build a private chain for itself, and AVAX only collects some validation fees; the coin itself doesn't get much benefit. Even if the chain is lively, it doesn't mean holding this coin will take off.
Is it worth buying? The coin has dropped more than 90% from its peak and is indeed at a cycle bottom now. The 1.7 billion USD RWA backing it is more solid than the pure bubble in 2021. The problem is that value capture hasn't happened; it's a story that sounds good but has weak realization. My personal view is that below 7 USD is suitable for laying low, and 8-9 USD is the news premium zone.
When will it rise? Either the burn or fee return mechanism really kicks in, or the RWA narrative heats up again and the overall market sentiment returns. Relying on just one news hype won't last more than a few days. #纽交所选定Avalanche，推进代币化证券结算
Will the CPI directly disrupt the rhythm of the crypto market? The data at 21:30 tonight is very critical. #美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？
The market expects the CPI month-on-month to be +0.3%, core +0.2%. Currently, the market's probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December has reached 80%. Because of last year's government shutdown, the focus tonight is on the month-on-month data.
My personal judgment is that the scenario of meeting expectations has the highest probability. If the data aligns with expectations, the probability of a rate hike will likely remain around 80%. $BTC could easily first spike down to shake out the bulls, then rally to sweep out the shorts, oscillating back and forth.
If the core month-on-month is ≥0.4%, the rate hike expectation could surge to over 90%, even pricing in another hike next year, which would be bearish for crypto.
Only if the core is ≤0.2%, ideally around 0.1%, will it shake the December rate hike expectations and be bullish for the market.
Before this data, it is not suitable to heavily bet on a one-sided position; spike moves can easily trigger leveraged liquidations. Wait for the data to land before deciding the direction.
Trump saying he will not take military action for now does not mean this standoff is ending soon; there are still three major hurdles before the war officially ends: #美伊和谈传出新方案，霍尔木兹通航能否恢复？
The US-Iran grudge has lasted over forty years, with several rounds of talks and breakdowns in between; it’s not something that can be resolved with a single statement.
The US tacitly allows Iran’s uranium enrichment to stay capped at 3.67%, and IAEA inspectors are ready to return. This is just a preliminary framework; three hurdles remain before an official end:
First, inspectors must actually verify the uranium enrichment level on the ground, not just take verbal assurances.
Second, the sanctions relief framework must be agreed upon, which is what Iran truly wants.
Third, the hardliners within both countries must be kept in check for this to move forward. Trump’s words are not binding; the next administration or crisis could reverse everything at any time. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal took nearly two years to negotiate and was still torn up in 2018.
So I believe Trump’s statement this time is just a de-escalation, not a final peace. The official conclusion may still take months, possibly as soon as the first quarter.
The market reacted quickly as well; US stocks already priced in the good news last night: the S&P rose over 2%, chips nearly 7%, and oil prices dropped 8%.
But $BTC Bitcoin remains stuck below 75k without recovering losses, due to leverage and ETF net outflows, which ran 1.28 billion last week. Geopolitical easing is good for risk assets, but BTC’s rise depends on ETF net inflows and clearing out the 73k liquidations. Geopolitics is not its engine.
In the short term, don’t chase the final peace narrative; hold your spot positions and wait for BTC’s own catalysts.
Using the news of Nvidia's Jensen Huang's scandal involving $NVDA as a springboard, let's talk about AI:
1. It feels like factional struggles are a big chess game, and I still have a lot to learn.
On the day the midterm election results came out, I said the Democrats are unfriendly to AI and advised friends heavily invested in AI to quickly liquidate. But I didn't expect the move to be so fast; in just 2 days, the "super AI ban" rumor surfaced.
After the AI ban news came out, I thought the crackdown was about done, since this was already a very panic-inducing news event, and it would be hard for another black swan to appear...
But then they casually dropped the news about Jensen Huang's scandal, causing another wave of AI panic—leveraging a small move to create a big impact.
2. Next, AI should continue to pull back. Because I firmly believe that since the Democrats are in power, things that align with their interests will inevitably happen.
Nvidia's technicals are also poor: it has fallen from a high of 230, broken below the 200 round number, currently around 180. Last week it dropped 8.8%, this month down 18.6%, with moving averages clearly in a bearish alignment.
The blue faction's Google $GOOGL is also weak and dragged down: 288 is suppressed below the moving averages, with the 20-day line at 314 and 60-day line at 334 forming resistance. MACD is negative, ADX over 60 confirming the downtrend, with support around 280 but no sign of reversal yet.
I estimate $BTC will also have to pull back, though I don't know where the bottom is.
Of course, every time I wait for a price I’m satisfied with, I buy a bit; now I only have 20% of my position left.
BTCSpot
+545.87 USDT
+21.06%The token unlock volume this week isn't large, but there are a few days to watch closely.
According to DefiLlama, the total unlock from November 9-15 is close to $200 million.
Focus on Wednesday and the weekend. The 11th has the largest unlock of the week, releasing about $30 million in a single day. Pump.fun's $PUMP alone accounts for $24.89 million, making it the biggest single risk this week.
On the 14th, Connex releases $17 million, and on the 15th, the Arbitrum Foundation releases $15.83 million. The $ARB from this release goes to the foundation's address, leaning towards selling pressure. If you hold this coin or want to buy the dip, you still need to watch the chain closely.
The 13th is quite crowded, with Starknet's $STRK releasing $8.52 million and Sei releasing $4.26 million—two releases on the same day. Small coins' liquidity can be easily drained.
Although the total volume this week isn't heavy, PUMP accounts for a high proportion. Meme coins themselves have no backing, so the probability of selling immediately after unlocking is high. Bitcoin and Ethereum can hold steady, but the real danger lies with new coins that have a small circulating supply.
