The HBM trade is becoming a capacity allocation story, not just an AI demand story.
When memory inventory gets this tight, chipmakers face a choice: prioritize high margin HBM or supply conventional DRAM. That competition can push memory prices higher, but it also makes supply normalization the biggest risk to the trade.
SK Hynix has the advantage today, but Samsung's progress shows that leadership is not guaranteed.
#SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook
ARRIWYKS
#SKhynixQ3HBM4Earnings
#Hynix Cloud +AI HBM4 Cloud = Speicherengpass jetzt, nicht GPU
HBM-Markt 38 Mrd. $→58 Mrd. $ +52% 26E, 85 Mrd. $ 27E. SK = 62% HBM-Anteil, *∼70% des NVDA Vera Rubin HBM4* (TrendForce) vs. geschätzt 50%. 16 Stapel = 576GB/Stapel vs. HBM3E 8Gb → 2x BW.
Warum bullisch: Inventar <10 Tage (erstmals). Wafer 150-200k/Monat 3-4x Micron, 50% → HBM4 = DDR5 verknappt → Q4 DRAM +10-15% NAND +15-20%. JPM sieht 20%
*Risiken:* Samsung 8,7 Mrd. $ HBM Q3 > SK 7,6 Mrd. $ erstmals*
*OKX-Strategie: Long HBM mit Hebel, short PC DDR.*
Haftungsausschluss: OKX Orbit-Inhalt dient nur zu Informationszwecken. Mehr erfahren
